Odds Research Lab

Settled 2025 archive

Asset Contract Entry probability Time remaining

28 observations

Calibration

Actual settlement rate versus average first-crossing price. Perfect calibration follows the diagonal.

Time To Expiration

Observed success and average paid probability grouped by days remaining.

Expected Value Desk

Proposed YES ask 65% Your true-probability estimate 65% Kelly fraction 25%

Sizing uses binary-contract Kelly: (p − q) / (1 − q). It is zero when estimated edge is negative. Spread, fees, slippage, and model error are not included.

Evidence Quality

Correlated evidence

What this test supports

First archived trade at or above 60%, converted to YES probability, then held through binary settlement.

What it does not support

Persistence, executable ask, volume confirmation, path drawdown, delayed fills, or walk-forward model selection require denser snapshots and order-book history.

Observation Audit

One row per unique Polymarket contract. Click a column heading to sort.

Asset	Contract	Type	Entry ↕	Crossed ↕	Days left	Settlement	P/L ↕	Trades